Clinical Predictive Models Created by AI are Accurate but Study-Specific

In a recent study, scientists have been investigating the accuracy of AI models that predict whether people with schizophrenia will respond to antipsychotic medication. Statistical models from the field of artificial intelligence (AI) have great potential to improve decision-making related to medical treatment. However, data from medical treatment that can be used for training these models are not only rare, but also expensive. Therefore, the predictive accuracy of statistical models has so far only been demonstrated in a few data sets of limited size. In the current work, the scientists are investigating the potential of AI models and testing the accuracy of the prediction of treatment response to antipsychotic medication for schizophrenia in several independent clinical trials. The results of the new study, in which researchers from the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Cologne and Yale were involved, show that the models were able to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy within the trial in which they were developed. However, when used outside the original trial, they did not show better performance than random predictions. Pooling data across trials did not improve predictions either. The study 'Illusory generalizability of clinical prediction models' was published in Science.

The study was led by leading scientists from the field of precision psychiatry. This is an area of psychiatry in which data-related models, targeted therapies and suitable medications for individuals or patient groups are supposed to be determined. "Our goal is to use novel models from the field of AI to treat patients with mental health problems in a more targeted manner," says Dr Joseph Kambeitz, Professor of Biological Psychiatry at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Cologne and the University Hospital Cologne. "Although numerous initial studies prove the success of such AI models, a demonstration of the robustness of these models has not yet been made." And this safety is of great importance for everyday clinical use. "We have strict quality requirements for clinical models and we also have to ensure that models in different contexts provide good predictions," says Kambeitz. The models should provide equally good predictions, whether they are used in a hospital in the USA, Germany or Chile.

The results of the study show that a generalization of predictions of AI models across different study centres cannot be ensured at the moment. This is an important signal for clinical practice and shows that further research is needed to actually improve psychiatric care. In ongoing studies, the researchers hope to overcome these obstacles. In cooperation with partners from the USA, England and Australia, they are working on the one hand to examine large patient groups and data sets in order to improve the accuracy of AI models and on the use of other data modalities such as biological samples or new digital markers such as language, motion profiles and smartphone usage.

Chekroud AM, Hawrilenko M, Loho H, Bondar J, Gueorguieva R, Hasan A, Kambeitz J, Corlett PR, Koutsouleris N, Krumholz HM, Krystal JH, Paulus M.
Illusory generalizability of clinical prediction models.
Science. 2024 Jan 12;383(6679):164-167. doi: 10.1126/science.adg8538

Most Popular Now

Philips Foundation 2024 Annual Report: E…

Marking its tenth anniversary, Philips Foundation released its 2024 Annual Report, highlighting a year in which the Philips Foundation helped provide access to quality healthcare for 46.5 million people around...

New AI Transforms Radiology with Speed, …

A first-of-its-kind generative AI system, developed in-house at Northwestern Medicine, is revolutionizing radiology - boosting productivity, identifying life-threatening conditions in milliseconds and offering a breakthrough solution to the global radiologist...

Scientists Argue for More FDA Oversight …

An agile, transparent, and ethics-driven oversight system is needed for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to balance innovation with patient safety when it comes to artificial intelligence-driven medical...

New Research Finds Specific Learning Str…

If data used to train artificial intelligence models for medical applications, such as hospitals across the Greater Toronto Area, differs from the real-world data, it could lead to patient harm...

Giving Doctors an AI-Powered Head Start …

Detection of melanoma and a range of other skin diseases will be faster and more accurate with a new artificial intelligence (AI) powered tool that analyses multiple imaging types simultaneously...

AI Agents for Oncology

Clinical decision-making in oncology is challenging and requires the analysis of various data types - from medical imaging and genetic information to patient records and treatment guidelines. To effectively support...

Patients say "Yes..ish" to the…

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to be integrated in healthcare, a new multinational study involving Aarhus University sheds light on how dental patients really feel about its growing role in...

Brains vs. Bytes: Study Compares Diagnos…

A University of Maine study compared how well artificial intelligence (AI) models and human clinicians handled complex or sensitive medical cases. The study published in the Journal of Health Organization...

'AI Scientist' Suggests Combin…

An 'AI scientist', working in collaboration with human scientists, has found that combinations of cheap and safe drugs - used to treat conditions such as high cholesterol and alcohol dependence...

Start-ups in the Spotlight at MEDICA 202…

17 - 20 November 2025, Düsseldorf, Germany. MEDICA, the leading international trade fair and platform for healthcare innovations, will once again confirm its position as the world's number one hotspot for...